Causal CMO #6: How to Run a Skunkworks GTM Project (Quietly)

CMOs can make a big difference with CausalAI. It starts with what Mark Stouse calls a “quiet pilot.” Not a pitch. Not a deck. In Part 6 of The Causal CMO, Mark explains how GTM leaders can run skunkworks projects in the background without wasting months seeking buy-in or permission by using causal modeling. We used “deal velocity” as our project, but you can apply it to any core outcome: CAC, LTV, funnel integrity, partner yield, brand equity, even recruiting.

Takeaways

  • A quiet pilot isn’t sneaky, it’s smart
  • Causal pilots model outcomes, actions, and externalities
  • Most GTM teams are drowning in noise, not signal
  • The grief curve is real (and necessary)
  • Done right, you won’t need to sell it because others will eventually ask

Skunkworks Projects Are Not Sketchy 

As we touched on in Part 4 and Part 5, the goal of a “quiet pilot” is meant to protect signal integrity. It’s not about secrecy. 

If you announce you’re piloting CausalAI before you’ve proven anything, internal pressure will spike. Opinions will fly. Fear will kick in. And you’ll waste all your energy managing reactions instead of learning. 

“There’s nothing unethical about doing a quiet pilot. In fact, it’s probably the most ethical way to test something that matters.”

You want to reduce friction, not accountability. To observe, adjust, and verify results before you invite others in.

What You Actually Need to Model

Causal modeling isn’t magic. It’s just math applied to three distinct domains:

  1. Outcomes: Revenue, margin, cash flow, deal flow, LTV
  2. Internal levers: Marketing, Sales, Product, CS activities
  3. Externalities: Market forces, buyer psychology, macro risk

Most teams obsess over 1 and 2. But externalities drive 70–80% of performance. You’re not here to brute-force your way through them. You’re here to surf them.

“You can have the best mix in the world and still fail—if you ignore externalities.”

The Case: Deal Velocity Under Pressure

We used a B2B SaaS scenario:

  • CAC is stable. 
  • Cash flow is tight. 
  • The board’s impatient. 
  • The CMO needs to increase deal velocity, and fast.

Here’s how Mark broke it down:

  • CAC is a form of debt. If deals slip, you can’t pay it off.
  • Deal slippage usually signals buyer fear, not GTM failure.
  • Buyers need decision insurance to move forward. 
  • Without decision insurance, they delay and that delay kills cash flow.

Mark’s personal experience at Honeywell Aerospace demonstrates the effectiveness of running a quiet pilot:

“We improved deal velocity by almost 5%. That’s $11–12 billion of revenue moving faster into the company. The cash flow impact was extraordinary. The CFO became a fan.”

How to Run the Pilot

You don’t need perfection to start. You need clarity.

Step 1: Pick a business-critical outcome

Start with a question like this one:

“Out of everything we’re doing, what’s really driving deal velocity?”

Step 2: Model the 3 domains

  • Outcomes and internal levers will require your data (clean or messy, it doesn’t matter).
  • Externalities (macro, industry, buyer conditions) can be pulled from public sources like the SEC, Fed, or academic datasets.
  • Use synthetic data to simulate missing patterns. If your internal data is sparse, GenAI tools can generate approximations to bridge gaps and help simulate realistic data patterns.

“Even synthetic models become templates for real ones later.”

Step 3: Let the system run

Watch the forecast. Compare it to actuals. Adjust your mix. Then track again.

You’ll feel the change before you explain it. So will others.

“People will pass you in the hallway and say, ‘Something feels different.’ That’s your moment.”

What to Expect Emotionally

You’re going to get humbled. So be prepared.

“You’ll realize most of what you’ve been tracking is noise. You’ll grieve. You’ll deny. You’ll get angry. Then you’ll change.”

It’s normal to go through disbelief, regret, frustration and even grief as you uncover how much of your GTM effort was based on correlation or gut feel.

But that’s the cost of clarity.

And the reward?

A system that actually tells you what’s working and how to make it better.

When to Go Public

Not too soon. Let the model mature.

Here’s a rough timeline:

  • Month 0: Quiet start. Build models. Simulate where needed.
  • Month 3: Adjust the GTM mix based on signals.
  • Month 6: Teams feel the shift, even if they don’t know why.
  • Month 9–12: Go public. Brief the CFO and CEO. Build the case.

That’s when you gain credibility and the CEO and CFO lean in. 

That’s when the board invites you to present. 

That’s when peers start asking:

“If I gave you more budget, what could you do with it?”

Your story isn’t based on aspiration. It’s built on change.

This Isn’t Just for Marketing

Mark was very clear about the cross-functional application of CausalAI. 

You can apply causal models across the entire business:

  • HR: Recruiting, retention, employer brand
  • IR: Investor onboarding, perception shift
  • Product: Roadmap clarity, user friction reduction

If your team owns outcomes, causal modeling can help you prove what drives them, even outside GTM.

Final Thought

If you’re a CMO, CRO, or GTM lead hoping to “earn your seat at the table,” this is how you do it. Not with big claims or flashy decks. With evidence.

“This isn’t a threat. It’s a lifeboat. Everything else is the risk.”

You don’t need better math. You need better questions and the courage to ask them before you sell the answer.

Give it a go

  • Start with one question.
  • Model what matters.
  • Don’t sell the vision. Build it quietly.
  • Then let the results speak.

If you want to see what this looks like in practice, Mark has demo videos and 1:1 sessions available. Reach out to him directly on LinkedIn or email him at mark.stouse@proofanalytics.ai 

Missed the LinkedIn Live session? Rewatch Part 6.

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This article is AC-A and published on LinkedIn. Join the conversation!