Buying Signals, Not Form Fills: Route on Patterns

Form fills and PDF downloads indicate curiosity, not intent. Treat forms as supporting evidence inside a broader pattern. Route on patterns for speed. Use causality to decide where to invest.

Takeaways

  • Form fills ≠ intent: completed forms may show interest, not intent to buy.
  • Strong signals: repeat pricing visits + security/integration docs + multiple stakeholders + return visits.
  • Measure impact: tag a signal of record; track win rate and forecast accuracy lift.
  • Causality > correlation: patterns detect; causal tests decide budget.

What some teams already know

GTM teams are coming to realize buyers don’t move in a straight line.

As decisions get real, more time can pass and more stakeholders can show up.

The part many still miss: a contact form fill or a gated PDF download doesn’t change any of that. It’s a weak signal until it’s part of a bigger picture.

Paula Skaper, over at 33 Dolphins, posted this LinkedIn comment on a recent article:

“Would love to see a follow up on buying signals. Something tells me ‘filling in a form to download a lead magnet’ is guaranteed to be on the list.”

She’s right.

An eBook gate, by itself, is weak. It proves someone traded an email for content. It does not prove buying intent.

Some forms can be strong: demo request, pricing/config quote, security questionnaire, RFP upload. They get stronger when surrounded by hotter activity in a short window.

Read signals as a story

Buyers don’t march left-to-right when we want them to.

They loop. They backtrack. They add and remove people. They rinse and repeat on their time, not ours.

Non-linear map showing curved paths among Case Studies, Pricing, ROI, Security/Integration, Demo, and Procurement/Legal, with stakeholder counts growing 1 to 2 to 4 to 7+ and a Trigger Zone around Pricing and Security.

Read the pattern across people, content, and time, not a sequence.

  • Compression: related activity bunches up inside 7–14 days (and often repeats later).
  • Escalation: things heat up (Case Studies/ROI > Pricing > Security/Integration > Procurement/Legal).
  • Expansion: more stakeholders from the same domain join in (as many as 11 or more when it's time to sign)
  • Loops matter: Procurement can bounce back to Security; Security can bounce back to Pricing; ROI can ping-pong with Pricing.

Our job is to spot momentum, not enforce a linear path.

Routing rule (make it binary):

  • IF two or more stakeholders from the same domain hit pricing at least twice in 7-14 days,
  • AND any one views security, integration, or implementation docs,
  • THEN alert the AE and set a four-hour follow-up SLA.

Everything else goes to nurture until the pattern appears.

“We need to stop tossing early interest over the fence. Marketers must own that signal until it’s contextualized, confirmed, and validated.”
 
Kerry Cunningham, 6sense

Buying intent checklist

Weak Moderate Strong
Single eBook or webinar reg Two to three related pages Repeated pricing views
One anonymous visit Return visit in seven days Security, integration, or implementation docs
Third-party “topic interest” with no matching first-party activity Two stakeholders from the same domain Net-new stakeholder joins
Inbound request (demo, security review, pricing/config, RFP)
All inside a compressed time window

Causality, briefly

Patterns are correlation. That’s fine for routing fast. When it’s time to fund programs, you need causal analysis.

Simple play:

  • Define the intervention: like a multi-threaded outreach play triggered by the strong-signal threshold.
  • Create contrast: stagger rollout by region or segment so you have a clean with/without comparison.
  • Measure lift: win rate, cycle time, ACV.
  • Decide: if lift is real, make it standard; if not, downgrade the signal or the play.
  • Experiment: try various what if scenarios that factor in externalities.

For more detail, check out the 6-Part Causal CMO series I did with Mark Stouse.

3-step ops plan

  1. Define: pick your “Strong 5” signals with Sales and CS. Write an SOP with thresholds. Get sign-off.
  2. Instrument: tag pricing, security, integration, ROI, and procurement pages first. Map each to roles.
  3. Route & review: trigger the SLA rule; tag a signal of record on every new opportunity; review lift quarterly.

Final Thoughts

If a signal doesn’t move win rate or forecast quality, downgrade it.

Keep the list short. Keep it honest.

Adopt the trigger for 30 days. Tag “Signal of Record” on every opp.

Share the lift.

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This article is AC-A and published on LinkedIn. Join the conversation!